COVID-Pro: a province-based analysis for Italy
The COVID-19 outbreak in Italy has spread mainly in northern regions, particularly in Lombardy. However, even within the same region the virus has spread irregularly from province to province, producing real epicenters of infection in some provinces but also affecting other areas with relatively lower intensity.
In this dashboard we present some tools for analyzing and visualizing the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy at a provincial (NUTS-3) level by integrating official data from the Italian Ministry of Health with data extracted from official press conferences of regional health authorities, especially regarding the number of deaths due to the Covid-19 which is not currently reported in official data releases. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the epidemics behavior in the near future.
This is a beta version. In the coming days, new versions of this app will be released using new data sets and implementing other stochastic or deterministic models will be implemented and refined.
In order to use the contents in this dashboard, please cite the publication retrievable here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12779
A more technical paper can be found here: http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12170
Provincial data can be accessed from this github: https://github.com/CEEDS-DEMM/COVID-Pro-Dataset. Any contribution to the expansion and/or updating of the dataset is welcome.
This dashboard was developed by L. Ferrari, G. Gerardi, G. Manzi, A. Micheletti, F. Nicolussi and S. Salini.
We thank F. Matteucci, N. Sadki, R. Baby, A. Iordache, A. Singh, and N. Verardo for their valuable contribution during the project internship.
For the technical support and system administration and integration we thank F. Pessina and G. Pisapia.